This table shows the percentage of players with a given record that have gone on to make the top 8. Data is drawn from all "small" fifteen-round GPs from August 2003 to August 2019. Here "small" means 0-1024 players. There are 138 such events. Players with byes aren't included until they appear, so a player with two byes who wins their first match in round 3 will count for the "3-0" box but not the "1-0" or "2-0". As such the "1-0" box tallies only people who played in and won round 1. Mouseover or tap the table to show the data underlying that cell.

Here are links to the corresponding tables for small, medium, large, and massive GPs.
at conclusion of round...
x-0 x-0-1 x-1 x-1-1 x-2 x-1-2 x-2-1 x-3
15 1003/3 1004/4 1005/5 10047/47 10096/96 99199/201 93603/648 9.9115/1159
14 1009/9 1008/8 10047/47 99210/211 83544/654 5521/38 44143/324 4.8107/2244
13 10026/26 10011/11 100235/235 7587/115 44567/1268 3515/42 2094/455 1.860/3288
12 10053/53 8917/19 72316/435 52101/191 23511/2147 8.36/72 8.759/680 0.7032/4542
11 8986/96 6820/29 49413/835 30102/335 11419/3501 5.66/108 4.039/964 0.1911/5702
10 77147/190 3721/56 30465/1527 17101/570 5.9332/5615 3.96/155 1.721/1227 <0.14/5928
9 55214/385 2629/111 18515/2750 9.086/957 2.6237/8995 0.732/274 0.6914/2043 <0.11/11932
8 36285/786 1635/211 11554/4996 4.252/1232 1.2166/13888 00/320 0.225/2313 00/16558
7 24396/1600 1042/384 6.0516/8604 2.037/1837 0.55109/19650 00/418 00/2900 00/19637
6 15519/3244 6.043/714 3.1449/14296 0.8121/2607 0.2770/25873 00/499 00/3298 00/21116
5 9.7645/6618 2.733/1208 1.7378/22630 0.279/3328 0.1339/30714 00/547 00/3356 00/19415
4 5.8787/13576 1.324/1829 0.86281/32850 <0.12/3713 <0.110/31512 00/468 00/2662 00/14586
3 2.6526/20022 0.205/2488 0.33131/39760 00/3466 <0.12/26798 00/278 00/1508 00/7019
2 1.00249/25023 0.103/2872 <0.136/40841 00/2419 <0.11/15735
1 0.32109/34199 <0.11/2820 <0.117/34183