This table shows the percentage of players with a given record that have gone on to make the top 8. Data is drawn from all "medium" fifteen-round GPs from August 2003 to July 2019. Here "medium" means 1025-1536 players. There are 147 such events. Players with byes aren't included until they appear, so a player with two byes who wins their first match in round 3 will count for the "3-0" box but not the "1-0" or "2-0". As such the "1-0" box tallies only people who played in and won round 1. Mouseover or tap the table to show the data underlying that cell.

Here are links to the corresponding tables for small, medium, large, and massive GPs.
at conclusion of round...
x-0 x-0-1 x-1 x-1-1 x-2 x-1-2 x-2-1 x-3
15 1003/3 1002/2 1007/7 100120/120 97454/464 99235/236 63312/488 0.409/2258
14 1006/6 10013/13 100109/109 94262/276 56657/1160 5017/34 2083/414 0.135/3891
13 10024/24 10025/25 88363/410 5785/147 28610/2143 2413/54 7.646/608 <0.13/5789
12 9060/66 7125/35 57441/763 3381/245 14524/3609 1310/75 3.026/863 <0.11/8117
11 73102/139 5935/59 37524/1380 1566/413 6.9414/6008 6.68/121 1.619/1154 00/10451
10 58171/293 4241/97 22567/2518 8.460/716 3.2312/9647 4.47/160 0.8812/1371 00/11467
9 43264/607 2542/163 12563/4531 4.654/1180 1.6239/15158 1.44/285 0.215/2402 00/19972
8 27342/1231 1549/312 7.1566/8025 1.833/1790 0.78179/22805 0.271/371 <0.12/3325 00/27687
7 17444/2511 7.944/555 3.8529/13821 0.9325/2688 0.40129/32341 00/537 <0.11/4291 00/32914
6 11579/5086 4.444/1005 2.0454/23032 0.3714/3823 0.1983/42799 00/713 <0.11/4984 00/35516
5 6.8704/10356 2.441/1732 1.0378/36547 <0.15/5034 <0.147/51090 00/866 00/5122 00/32612
4 4.0837/21137 0.9025/2775 0.55295/53475 <0.14/5909 <0.115/52504 00/741 00/4202 00/23816
3 1.8618/34776 0.3112/3855 0.22146/66755 <0.11/5562 <0.15/43454 00/412 00/2375 00/11402
2 0.57231/40468 <0.14/4737 0.1067/66108 00/3932 00/25496
1 0.22124/55114 00/4500 <0.118/55098